Survey of market penetration of various plug-in technologies (Flash, Java, QuickTime, etc)

Hi Douglas:

Well, of course, any study commisioned by one of the players (lower-case "p") regarding the Player/plug-in technology is going to appear suspect. :-) I imagine that it's fairly representative, though, +/- the usual scientific fudge factor, and minus the additional we-commisioned-it factor. I bet if Apple Computer, Inc. commisioned a study, the results might be a little different. ;)

If you know of a different & totally third-party report, I'll post it here!

Some quick notes:
* The 95% market share you imply for Windows doesn't account for the install base of Linux, Unix and other operating systems. Small, to be sure, but must be noted.

* Windows Media Player is something I don't run on my machine, preferring to run WMV files through Quicktime. Admittedly, my focus is VR and since I can't run QTVR through WMP I'm not interested. :-)

* Since:

"[t]he survey presents respondents with several pages, each with a graphic image in a different media file format, and asks respondents to indicate whether or not they can see each image, one at a time[,]"

...The user would need not have any knowledge of which plug-ins they had installed. This is from the methodology outline link at the survey site.

* This survey only covers the big players/Players, and their general install base. I would like to see a VR Industry-specific survey, of both producers and users (visitors). There are many "viewers" out there, most of which rely on one of the big Players, and I'd like to see how the adoption of these VR viewers breaks down among producers (and among the plug-in structure outlined at Adobe's survey).

The idea that Real Estate/Hospitality is "moving" to a viewer such as PTViewer is anecdotal at best. I see them also using Flash and QuickTime (also said anecdotally).

* Real Estate/Hospitality, though large potentilal markets for VR, aren't the only markets. I shoot very little VR for real estate, except at the higher end. My market is more boutique & at the same time more corporate. Some shooters focus on the movie industry, some on more photojournalistic uses, and so on. That said, I don't want to confuse markets with viewer usage -- though Markets would be a very important part of a VR Industry survey.

* If a user doesn't have a Java installation, then they do need to install Java. I'm not sure where it started, but the idea that folks don't have to install Java is horribly misleading. Of course if I have QuickTime already installed, I won't need to install it to view a QTVR. Likewise for Java. I've had to install Java twice recently -- once on a Mac, once on Win XP.

* The Web sites (meaning, our clients) will use and support what we as professionals recommend, ultimately. If they're educated that Java is the end all and be all, that it doesn't require installation, that it isn't a plug-in, then Java will "win". We need to educate them as to what is best (for them, their audience, the quality of image). I do it on a case by case basis, daily. I have yet to deliver VR to my clients in a Java-ready format -- though I did recently perform some photography for another VR producer, who then made the end result Java-based.

Cheers,

Patrick Cheatham
--
CheathamLane | spinControl:VR
Berkeley, California
VR Photography
Web, Flash & QuickTime Development

Patrick
I didn't read the entire Methodology, but the part you quoted;

"[t]he survey presents respondents with several pages, each with a graphic image in a different media file format, and asks respondents to indicate whether or not they can see each image, one at a time[,]"

seems to confirm my suspicion participation was skewed (accidently or purposefully) away from Windows users. (Windows Media Player only reported 84% compared to 95% PC sales)

Significanly missing from the published/posted results is which platform the participants were using. Could there be a reason the OS was excluded?

I just did a quick check of the Statistics from the Ad Server that services my site, www.AdSpeed.com. They provide some really valuable info for planning a website and Virtual Photography format selection.

There were 228,768 Unique Visits to my website, VirtualAlbuquerque.com, in 2006. The local convention bureau website reported just over 600,000 for the 2005. Not gigantic numbers, but not insignificant ones either

Operating Systems of visitors
Windows XP 81.3%
Windows 2000 7.4%
OSX 5.3% (Supports 5% Mac sales)
Windows 98 2.6%
Windows ME 1.0%
down the list just ahead of Windows 95 ??????....
Linux .3% (pretty insignificant)

Java Status
Enabled 95.9% (Just a hair below Flash)
Disabled 1.3%
Unknown 2.6%

These are stats from a real-live website, not a survey.

There is a breakdown of browsers, including the various versions, too

I just delivered my second article to the online hotel management magazine, HotelExecutive.com, called "The Online Property Tour." The premise was for the sales staff to respond to incoming telephone calls about banquets, conventions, etc, by guiding the potential customer to their wesbite and taking them on an "Online Property Tour."

Essential to using a virtual tour in this "real-world" way is the potential customer not needing to install a viewer. Making it even more essential is the fact that many networked business computer users wouldn't be able to intall the viewer if they wanted to. The IT managers usually restrict users from downloading & installing software.

So if they don't already have what they need on their machine, the hotel and potential customer are SOL. I'm not sure how IT managers look at Flash, but suspect they are more likely to have installed Java when they set that machine up than any other VR viewer technology.

I have guided dozens of potential VR customers over the phone to my site to demonstrate something and have only run into one that couldn't use the iPIX Java Viewer. They were on a Mac???? Anecdotal, but true.

For the same reason, when I added Streaming Video to my media products, Windows Media Video was the clear choice because the WMP is already installed on 95% of desktops. I did do some "due dilligence" reading the "Streaming Media Bible" to see if there were any advantages of QuickTime and Real Player that could trump WMP's 95% market penetration. I couldn't find enough. (The Macromedia Video format used by sites like You Tube hadn't appeared at the time)I decided the Mac users could install WMP like so many Windows users have installed QuickTime for Windows, although a few were offended by the idea. Anecdotal, but true again.

My point is; we have to play the odds (anecdotal or statistical) when recomending to a customer which technology will work best for them.

To me the odds are in favor of Java now, but Flash may change that soon.

Douglas Aurand
Albuquerque, NM

Hi Douglas:

Regarding:

"[t]he survey presents respondents with several pages, each with a graphic image in a different media file format, and asks respondents to indicate whether or not they can see each image, one at a time[,]"

seems to confirm my suspicion participation was skewed (accidently or purposefully) away from Windows users. (Windows Media Player only reported 84% compared to 95% PC sales)

Significanly missing from the published/posted results is which platform the participants were using. Could there be a reason the OS was excluded?

...I think operating system isn't important for this survey. I don't see anything in the study, or in the methodology, which implies results being skewed away from any particular operating system. I'd need to have you unpack that thought...

Also, for the Survey In Question, I believe it mentions that most of the respondees were using home computers, but made allowance for business computer respondents.

Of course, a B2B use of VR is going to potentially have a different, "best" delivery method than say a VR that is B2C or even P2P. :-P

I'm not interested in joining a Win vs. Mac vs. *nix conversation. I'm mainly concerned in 1) what the Adobe survey means to our community, and 2) of what benefit a VR Industry survey would be.

Many of my clients are in the publishing/media indusry, so it may be that my client base is already using Macs more often than Windows-based boxes. My potential clientel/audience may prove to be at either extreme of the Bell curve which would result from any study. :-) My main push is for a high quality of image, and delivery method comes second to that. My client's need for a high quality image will usually remove out-of-the-box Java-based solutions in favor of custom ones.

Patrick Cheatham
--
CheathamLane | spinControl:VR
Berkeley, California
VR Photography
Web, Flash & QuickTime Development

Patrick
Adobe is representing their survey as typical of the general Internet using public (The survey's about Flash and, to a lessor extent, Shockwave, after all).

Since 2 of the "viewers" (WMP and QT) are included with their respective operating systems, which OS they have is definitely important to the survey results. If we were discussing this before Microsoft stopped including MSJVM in Win XP, Java use would be 100% of Windows users. The operating system would be even more important to the survey results then.

There are many sources on the Web that report the 95% PC/5% Mac overall market shares. If only 84% of survey participants had Windows Media Player, then only 84% or less (assuming some Mac & Linux users have Windows Media Player) were using some version of Windows. Very simply, the participants are not representative of the OS market share of the general public. That skews the results for Java, WMP and QT and make the survey of marginal value to anyone but Adobe

Your client base being in the publishing/media indusry would usually be thought of as more Mac oriented than the "general public". In other words, its not typical of the general public using the Internet. And you obviously need to serve your customers with the product/format they want or prefer. To them the convenience of have VRs and Video in a QT format is as valuable as Windows users finding video in a WMV format.

In your case it sounds like a more extensive survey of VR viewer methods wouldn't be much value beyond general curiosity.

In my case the same is true, Java viewers (primarily the PTViewer and the iPIX Java Viewer) dominate the national real estate and major chain hotel websites. Any detailed study of VR viewers in general would probably show me what I've already learned by working the real estate market for 7 years and my research seeking more work in the hospitality industry, Java Viewers are generally the prefered viewing methods on those websites because the Interent users (potential customers) who use the sites are more typical of the general public. Basically, 95% of them are Windows users.

Douglas Aurand
Albuquerque, NM

Hi Douglas:

How they list the players is ambiguous; my take on it is that they include "Microsoft" and "Apple" in the same way they include "Adobe" and "RealOne" as part of the names for the viewers. Obviously, people using Macintosh do use WMP, and Windows users do use QuickTime. Similarly, they say only "Java", nicely side-stepping Sun or MS. Seems to me to be still pretty platform independent.

As for general curiousity, well, many of my clients are also VR producers and shooters such as yourself -- and many are IVRPA members. I would find an industry survey very useful for more than historical reasons -- Some of the bullet points I list above as of interest could if answered give me broader insight as to my broader market's activity, and possibly alert me to areas I had overlooked or not thought enough about.

You obviously have a deep insight to (and vested interest in!) the real estate and hospitality markets -- an industry survey might alert you of other potential markets to which you hadn't given much thought, and in which many of our fellow members thrive (to the exclusion of other more run-and-gun photo markets). Or, it might be simply a curiosity. ;-)

Postmodernly,

Patrick Cheatham
--
CheathamLane | spinControl:VR
Berkeley, California
VR Photography
Web, Flash & QuickTime Development

Patrick
A survey like you suggested, not limited to the viewer/players, would be very interesting to me.

I have stumbled onto markets that I never would have though of going after like the Assisted Living Center I did this summer. When they get the tour on their website I plan to use that to solicit more Assisted Living Centers & Retirement Facilities.

Douglas Aurand
Albuquerque, NM

Ha, Douglas -- I suppose I didn't answer your question, really, about what I'd like to see in a survey (and why).

* Number of photographers shooting for interactive panoramas
-- Pro vs. Hobbyist
-- Stitched vs. single-shot or other
-- Digital vs. film

* Markets for Pro VR shooting
-- Type and number of differing markets
-- Number of markets each shooter competes within

* Development platform(s) of shooters
-- Software breakdown, by use of
-- Hardware breakdown, by use of / by manufacturer

* Delivery methods offered by photographer/VR producer
-- within and beyond the Adobe survey mentioned above

* Professional affiliations of shooters

* Etc?

Patrick Cheatham
--
CheathamLane | spinControl:VR
Berkeley, California
VR Photography
Web, Flash & QuickTime Development

Patrick
Sounds like an extension of my Camera/Lens/Rotator Library idea.

We could make a more structured optional form for IVRPA members to fill out as part of the profile.

Douglas Aurand
Albuquerque, NM